Is the NZD  under real risk?

Is the NZD under real risk?

Diperbarui • 2019-11-11

The downward trend of the New Zealand dollar started in the middle of April 2018 and has been continuing until current days. This week the NZD/USD pair reached lows of May 2016. Strengthening US dollar, weak economic data and trade war tensions weigh on the currency.

According to the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), there are downside risks to kiwi despite the fact that it’s already trading below its fair value.

  • The Bank sees emerging market prices together with rising US dollar as the biggest near-term risks for the NZD. According to the bank, the rising US short-term interest rates will be more attractive for investors than NZD rate with risks of cuts.
  • The Bank says that domestic forces and the Central Bank are a big stone on the way to NZD’s growth. New Zealand economic data are weak to encourage the Central Bank’s decision on the rate hike. Furthermore, such weak data make the market price in a possibility of the rate cut. And although the BNZ doesn’t see this threat for the New Zealand currency, near-term risks invest in worries about rate cuts putting additional pressure on the currency.
  • BNZ warns that New Zealand commodity prices fell as well. Moreover, BNZ’s risk appetite index declined to 56% that is down to the lowest level over the past 1,5 years.

Despite the negative assessment of the current NZD’s environment, the Bank doesn’t see reasons to be overly bearish. BNZ says that easing commodity prices won’t have a negative impact on the NZ trade. As a result, New Zealand's terms of trade will likely remain close to a record high. Additionally, fiscal stimulus will support growth over the second half so the recent soft data will be just temporary.

Although the BNZ is optimistic about the future of the NZD and the New Zealand economy, other authoritative institutions bet against the NZD.

The International Monetary Fund said that despite recent depreciation, New Zealand's Real Effective Exchange Rate is above its long-term average and the NZD is moderately overvalued. That is not a positive comment for the NZ currency.

According to analysts at JP Morgan, the idea of the rate cuts prevails in the market as the RBNZ recognized unfavorable growth forecasts. As a result, the bank bets to NZD shorts.

ANZ expects a further weakness of the NZD. According to the Bank, the price around current levels is close to where it’s supposed to be fair.

Let’s take a closer look at a technical setup in the near-term.

Up to now, NZD/USD is recovering. The pair managed to break the resistance at 0.6810. The strength of the NZD is based mostly on the weakness of the USD. If the US dollar continues to weaken, the pair will be able to reach the next resistance at 0.6885. The trendline lies at this level, so 0.6885 may become a reversal point for the pair. If the pair reaches the resistance, it will be a good sign to sell. Otherwise, a fall to the support at 0.67 is anticipated.

NZDUSDDaily.png

Making a conclusion, we can say that negative factors for the New Zealand dollar prevail. Even the major institution, the Central Bank, says about risks for the economic growth. It creates a possibility of the rate cut that is highly negative for the domestic currency. Trade wars issues put additional pressure on the commodity currencies including the NZD. Until the New Zealand economy presents more optimistic economic data, the NZD will suffer. 

Menyerupai

Mengapa reli minyak dalam bahaya?
Mengapa reli minyak dalam bahaya?

Ya, harga minyak sedang tinggi saat ini, dan akibatnya, inflasi di seluruh dunia semakin panas. Namun, momentum bullish minyak berada dalam bahaya.

Berita terbaru

Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?
Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?

XAUUSD naik ke rekor tertinggi baru pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), di tengah meningkatnya spekulasi penurunan suku bunga..melanjutkan kenaikan kuat minggu lalu hingga membentuk level puncak baru sepanjang masa

Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152
Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152

Pasar saham Asia sebagian masih libur dan sebagian lagi menguat pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), karena optimisme data pabrikan Tiongkok mendukung..potensi intervensi otoritas Jepang terhadap yen Jepang diperkirakan berada di zona 152 – 155 yen. 

Deposit dengan sistem pembayaran bank lokal DI INDONESIA

Pemberitahuan pengumpulan data

FBS menyimpan catatan data Anda untuk menjalankan website ini. Dengan menekan tombol "Setuju", Anda menyetujui kebijakan Privasi kami.

Ditelepon kembali

 1
 93
 355
 213
 1684
 376
 244
 1264
 672
 1268
 54
 374
 297
 61
 43
 994
 1242
 973
 880
 1246
 375
 32
 501
 229
 1441
 975
 591
 387
 267
 55
 246
 673
 359
 226
 257
 855
 237
 1
 238
 1345
 236
 235
 56
 86
 61
 61
 57
 269
 242
 243
 682
 506
 225
 385
 53
 357
 420
 45
 253
 1767
 1809
 593
 20
 503
 240
 291
 372
 251
 500
 298
 679
 358
 33
 594
 689
 241
 220
 995
 49
 233
 350
 30
 299
 1473
 590
 1671
 502
 224
 245
 592
 509
 39
 504
 852
 36
 354
 91
 62
 98
 964
 353
 44
 972
 39
 1876
 81
 962
 7
 254
 686
 850
 82
 965
 996
 856
 371
 961
 266
 231
 218
 423
 370
 352
 853
 389
 261
 265
 60
 960
 223
 356
 692
 596
 222
 230
 262
 52
 691
 373
 377
 976
 382
 1664
 212
 258
 95
 264
 674
 977
 31
 599
 687
 64
 505
 227
 234
 683
 672
 1670
 47
 968
 92
 680
 970
 507
 675
 595
 51
 63
 64
 48
 351
 1787
 974
 262
 40
 7
 250
 590
 290
 1869
 1758
 590
 508
 1784
 685
 378
 239
 966
 221
 381
 248
 232
 65
 421
 386
 677
 252
 27
 500
 34
 94
 249
 597
 268
 46
 41
 963
 886
 992
 255
 66
 670
 228
 690
 676
 1868
 216
 90
 993
 1649
 688
 256
 380
 971
 44
 1
 1
 598
 998
 678
 58
 84
 1284
 1
 681
 2
 967
 260
 263
00:00
00:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
23:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Merubah nomor

Permintaan Anda diterima.

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Permintaan panggilan balik berikutnya untuk nomor telepon ini
akan tersedia setelah

Jika Anda memiliki masalah mendesak, silakan hubungi kami melalui
Live chat

Internal error. Silahkan coba lagi

Jangan buang waktu Anda – tetap awasi dampak NFP terhadap dolar dan raup profitnya!

Anda menggunakan versi browser lama Anda.

Perbarui ke versi terbaru atau coba yang lain untuk pengalaman trading yang lebih aman, lebih nyaman dan produktif.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera