USD and S&P 500 will Choose the Direction

USD and S&P 500 will Choose the Direction

2021-08-24 • Actualizada

What is happening?

This week is full of important news, starting with PMIs in the key economies, with Jackson Hole Symposium as a cherry on the top. Weak Flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs (61.2 actual vs. 62.4 expected and 55.2 actual vs. 59.1 expected respectfully) are questioning the strength of the USD. Will Jackson Hole add to the pressure or will it send the dollar up?

Why is it important?

Jackson Hole Symposium is important due to central bankers often signaling important shifts in monetary policy. For instance, in 2008 Fed Chairman Bernanke tabled repeatedly to strategize with other high-level policymakers about the response to the Global Financial Crisis, in 2014 ECB President Draghi laid the groundwork for QE, and in 2020 Fed Chairman Powell announced average inflation targeting framework (it is the Fed’s long-run monetary framework that has replaced inflation targeting).

With the top policymakers from the ECB and Bank of England skipping this year’s event, traders’ focus will be almost exclusively on the US Federal Reserve, specifically any hints about the central bank’s timeline for tapering its asset purchases. Last week’s FOMC minutes showed a divided committee, and that came after a mix of optimistic (strong NFP jobs report) and pessimistic (poor consumer sentiment, a doubling of US COVID cases) news over the last month.

However, so far market’s expectations about tapering haven’t been met and dollar is under growing pressure. Last week dollar index hit a nine-month high on bets that the Fed would start shifting away from its accommodative monetary policy, but that view began to change on Friday when Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he might reconsider his hawkish stance if the virus harms the economy.

UsDollar Daily chart.

Support: 90.0, 91.5, 92.5.

Resistance: 93.475-93.6, 94.3, 94.8.

UsDollarDaily.png

Last week, when traders thought that the Fed would hurry to start tapering asset purchases, the USD rose and S&P 500 corrected down. On the contrary, when fears of tapering somewhat subsided, the US currency weakened and stocks set new highs – this is how this week has started. If concerns about covid-19 make the Fed postpone tapering up until next year, stock markets will get even higher.

US500 Daily chart.

Support: 4270, 4370.

Resistance: 4600

US500Daily.png

Elsewhere, oil has gained momentum on the news about zero new COVID cases in China. Another possible bullish factor is an explosion of Ku-Alfa, the oil production platform of Pemex company. This is one of the richest Mexican oil deposits with a production rate of close to 640K barrels a day. If the company can't cope with the situation, the prices will tend to rise, pressuring the greenback even more.

Although the oil has generally been able to shrug off strength in the stock market, the bullish combo of increased risk appetite and significant weakening in the U.S. dollar indices represents a potent mix that oil has been forced to recognize.

XBRUSD H4 chart.

Support: 65.0

Resistance: 69.7, 71.5, 72.5.

XBRUSDH4.png

TRADE NOW

Similar

Últimas noticias

Depósito con sistemas de pago locales

Aviso de recopilación de datos

FBS mantiene un registro de tus datos para ejecutar este sitio web. Al presionar el botón "Aceptar", estás aceptando nuestra Política de Privacidad .

Callback

 1
 93
 355
 213
 1684
 376
 244
 1264
 672
 1268
 54
 374
 297
 61
 43
 994
 1242
 973
 880
 1246
 375
 32
 501
 229
 1441
 975
 591
 387
 267
 55
 246
 673
 359
 226
 257
 855
 237
 1
 238
 1345
 236
 235
 56
 86
 61
 61
 57
 269
 242
 243
 682
 506
 225
 385
 53
 357
 420
 45
 253
 1767
 1809
 593
 20
 503
 240
 291
 372
 251
 500
 298
 679
 358
 33
 594
 689
 241
 220
 995
 49
 233
 350
 30
 299
 1473
 590
 1671
 502
 224
 245
 592
 509
 39
 504
 852
 36
 354
 91
 62
 98
 964
 353
 44
 972
 39
 1876
 81
 962
 7
 254
 686
 850
 82
 965
 996
 856
 371
 961
 266
 231
 218
 423
 370
 352
 853
 389
 261
 265
 60
 960
 223
 356
 692
 596
 222
 230
 262
 52
 691
 373
 377
 976
 382
 1664
 212
 258
 95
 264
 674
 977
 31
 599
 687
 64
 505
 227
 234
 683
 672
 1670
 47
 968
 92
 680
 970
 507
 675
 595
 51
 63
 64
 48
 351
 1787
 974
 262
 40
 7
 250
 590
 290
 1869
 1758
 590
 508
 1784
 685
 378
 239
 966
 221
 381
 248
 232
 65
 421
 386
 677
 252
 27
 500
 34
 94
 249
 597
 268
 46
 41
 963
 886
 992
 255
 66
 670
 228
 690
 676
 1868
 216
 90
 993
 1649
 688
 256
 380
 971
 44
 1
 1
 598
 998
 678
 58
 84
 1284
 1
 681
 2
 967
 260
 263
00:00
00:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
23:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

Un gerente le contactará pronto

Corregir número

Su solicitud ha sido aceptada

Un gerente le contactará pronto

La próxima solicitud de devolución de llamada para este número telefónico
estará disponible en

Si tienes algún problema urgente, contáctanos a través del
Chat en vivo

Error interno. Por favor, inténtelo nuevamente más tarde

¡No pierdas tu tiempo – mantente informado para ver cómo las NFP afectan al USD y gana!

Está utilizando una versión anterior de su navegador.

Actualícelo a la última versión o pruebe otro para una experiencia de trading más segura, cómoda y productiva.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera